Morgan Stanley analysts predict a decline in global property and liability (P&C) reinsurance rates ahead of the January renewals of reinsurance contracts, unless there are significant global catastrophes. However, reinsurance market participants are not so optimistic and predict an increase in reinsurance prices for certain risks. Forinsurer looked into what various analysts and companies think about this.
As for the 2024 hurricane season, its impact is currently under control, although Hurricane Milton is expected to impact reinsurers’ results in the fourth quarter. Major reinsurers such as Everest, Hamilton and RenRe have already assessed the potential losses from Milton, which Morgan Stanley estimates will be manageable for these companies.
Reinsurance market outlook for 2025
The outlook for the reinsurance market in 2025 is shaped by a stable market environment in 2024 and controlled risks associated with the hurricane season. Although reinsurers have performed better than expected due to efficient underwriting, recent trends suggest that the impact of reinsurance prices may be weakening, which could lead to a softer market.